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Elmo Roper

Elmo Roper


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Elmo Burns Roper was born in Hebron, Nebraska, on 31st July, 1900. He ran a jewelry business with his brother in Iowa in the 1920s. As Michael Wheeler, the author of Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics: The Manipulation of Public Opinion in America (2007) has pointed out: "Roper began not as a researcher but as a salesman for a jewelry manufacturer; he sold its line to retail stores. One of Roper's functions was to pass judgment on possible items for the coming year's line. When he was first hired, he was very impressed by his colleagues who could simply look at something and say whether or not it would sell. He did not have the confidence or the experience to make decisions of that sort, however, so he made it a practice to take samples out to jewelers he had sold to in the past and ask them what would move and what would not. He would then return to his home office and tell the company which items should be pushed and which dropped."

Roper went to work for the Traub Company. In 1933, he joined forces with Paul T. Cherington and Richardson Wood to establish Cherington, Wood, and Roper, a marketing research firm. The partnership broke-up the following year and Roper established his own company. In 1935 Henry Luce commissioned Roper to run public opinion polls for Fortune Magazine.

The 1936 Presidential Election was the first where polls were published in newspapers during the campaign. The Literary Digest sent out 10,000,000 questionnaires to voters. It predicted that Alfred Landon (57%) would defeat Franklin D. Roosevelt (43%). It later emerged the magazine reported its results based on only 15% of the questionnaires set out. It seems that Landon's supporters were much more willing to send back their questionnaires and therefore distorting the results.

George Gallup used a very different strategy: "The sampling procedure described is designed to produce an approximation of the adult civilian population living in the United States, except for the persons in institutions such as prisons or hospitals... The places (where people were interviewed) were selected to provide broad geographic distribution within states and at the same time in combination to be politically representative of the state or group of states in terms of three previous elections." Gallup's survey showed Roosevelt winning with 55.7% of the vote. However, this was 4% less than Roosevelt actually achieved and it was Roper's poll that came closest to predicting the result (only 0.9% out).

In 1940, President Franklin D. Roosevelt hired Roper to assess public opinion of Lend-Lease prior to its implementation. In 1942 he was hired by William Donovan to be the deputy director of the Office of Strategic Services. Roper helped convince George Marshall and Dwight Eisenhower of the importance of opinion research in the armed forces. In the later stages of the Second World War Roper worked with the Office of War Information.

Roper was highly critical of the work of George Gallup who he considered to be too close to the Republican Party and in the 1944 Presidential Election he gave considerable support to Thomas Dewey in his campaign to be the party's candidate. The British Security Coordination, who had an agent, David Ogilvy, working for Gallup claimed that the "Gallup Poll did not prove a reliable guide to the Presidential election of 1944. This was so, largely because Gallup is himself a Republican and a staunch supporter of Dewey. As William Stephenson learned, there was little doubt that Gallup deliberately adjusted his figures in Dewey's favour in the hope of stampeding the electorate." Ernest Cuneo told William Stephenson: "Dewey is one of Gallup's principal clients... Dewey is calling up Gallup so often they have to have a clerk to answer him."

Elmo Roper stated after the 1944 Presidential Election: "I think prediction of elections is a socially useless function. Marketing research and public opinion research have demonstrated that they are accurate enough for all possible commercial and sociological purposes. We should protect from harm this infant science which performs so many socially useful functions, but which could be wrong in predicting elections, particularly in a year like this."

After the war Roper founded the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Connecticut. In 1947 Roper appointed Louis Harris as his assistant. However, he later established his own company, Harris and Associates, that provided competition to Roper and George Gallup. Roper was critical of Harris when he joined the campaign team of John F. Kennedy. Roper attacked those "so-called public opinion researchers," who allow their polls to be exploited "rather openly for propaganda purposes."

Roper was also a syndicated newspaper and radio columnist, and during presidential elections he often appeared on network television. According to his biographer Roper was a "tireless activist for liberal causes" and was active in the civil rights movement. He was also a member of the National Urban League, Planned Parenthood and the US Citizen's Commission on NATO.

Elmo Burns Roper died on 30th April, 1971 in Redding, Connecticut.

The principal task of Louis Harris, Kennedy's personal pollster, was to churn out polls which would keep the bandwagon rolling. Sorensen describes one aspect of Harris' work. "Equally important, however, were the results of privately financed and conducted polls which were primarily for the senator's information though given to friendly politicians and columnists."

The late Elmo Roper, who apparently never missed a chance to criticize Harris, his former employee, was more explicit about just how these private polls were used. He bitterly attacked those "so-called public opinion researchers," meaning Harris, who allow their polls to be exploited "rather openly for propaganda purposes." Roper recounted an incident which shows just how willing Harris was to have polls used this way. "In one case polls were even leaked to an opponent showing he was seven points ahead. When he called me up long distance to ask me why I thought he would be shown a poll that Mr. Kennedy had paid for and that Mr. Kennedy had not yet seen, I said, "Well, has it occurred to you that they would like to see you let up on your campaigning a bit?"

Hubert Humphrey, the victim of much of this pollsmanship, today recalls Kennedy's and Harris' work with more envy than resentment. "Kennedy used the polls with a master's touch. Lou Harris was doing a lot of it for him. The polls were always being planted in the newspaper columns, Scotty Reston's and everybody else's. The information was made available; here it is, here's how our man is doing. When you're running high like that, and hard, you get the reputation as a front-runner."

The most basic kind of commercial polling, and the kind which has the oldest roots, is market research. Many of the pioneer public opinion pollsters got their start by testing the markets for various products; from there they branched into other fields. The career of the late Elmo Roper was typical of this pattern. Roper began not as a researcher but as a salesman for a jewelry manufacturer; he sold its line to retail stores.

One of Roper's functions was to pass judgment on possible items for the coming year's line. He would then return to his home office and tell the company which items should be pushed and which dropped.

This was market research in its crudest yet perhaps most useful form. Roper quickly had the best track record of all the salesmen. As his son, Burns Roper, puts it, "He wasn't shooting from the hip, just saying what he himself liked or disliked." The senior Roper's success convinced him that the routine he followed could have a much broader application. He began doing similar surveys for other businesses with different kinds of products. At the outset, he did most of the interviewing and worked on an intuitive, subjective basis.

Roper's clients began to ask that people's preferences be broken down according to their age, sex, or geographic location. This required more work, so Roper had to hire other people to do the interviewing, which in turn mandated written questionnaires. Methodology grew out of need and was progressively refined. At the core, however, Roper's function was to determine who would buy what.

There is nothing pernicious about this kind of market research; in fact, it is very useful in any complex economy. Whether one has great faith in the efficiency of the free enterprise system or favors a planned economy, there is a need for information which will help supply meet demand. Good market research can tell a manufacturer that a certain product just is not wanted and thus save him, and society, the cost of its production. Likewise, if demand is higher than anticipated, good market research can tell a company to produce more and thus take advantage of economies of scale.


Elmo Roper, Pollster, Is Dead Predicted ✶ Roosevelt Victory

WEST REDDING, Conn., April 30—Elmo Roper, the pub lic opinion analyst who was among the first to develop modern political polls, died to day in Norwalk Hospital at the age of 70.

Important in Politics

Elmo Burns Roper Jr. ac quired national fame in 1936 for creating what was to be come a 20th‐century phenom enon in political forecasting the scientific poll. Adapting the sampling techniques he had de veloped as a marketing consult ant, he predicted with remark able accuracy the re‐election of President Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Along with his rivals, George Gallup and Archibald Crossley, Mr. Roper became an increas ingly important figure in the world of politics. As polling became a staple of campaigns, pollsters, as they came to be known, proliferated. Louis Harris, currently one of the leading practitioners, got his start in the Roper organization.

Mr. Roper's technique con sisted of using a cross‐section of the public that was com paratively small but carefully picked to be as representative as possible.

The 1936 Presidential elec tion was his most sensational triumph. He predicted a Roose velt victory with 61.7 per cent of the popular vote. When the vote was tallied, Mr. Roosevelt had received 60.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, the rival Gallup and Crossley polls found them selves embarrassed by their predictions that Alf M. Landon, the Republican, would be the winner.

Again in 1940 and 1944 Mr. Roper predicted within 1 per cent Mr. Roosevelt's margin of victory. But the streak was spoiled in 1948 when, along with almost all the other poll sters, he forecast Thomas E. Dewey as the victor over Pres ident Harry S. Truman.

He was wrong again in 1960, but not by much. With John F. Kennedy defeating Richard M. Nixon by one of the closest margins in history, Mr. Roper's margin of error in picking a Nixon victory was only slightly in excess of 1 per cent.

However, even before the Truman upset, Mr. Roper had come to consider simple predic tions as “socially useless.”

He was more interested in his finding that the “average” citizen was often uninformed on vital matters of public poli cy. He argued that opinion polls could explore those areas of public ignorance to see where more information was needed.

When the public had suffi cient facts, he said, “it is likely to steer just as wise and fair a course as that plotted by any of its leaders.”

Mr. Roper took the view that the disrepute into which polls had fallen in recent years was more the fault of the politicians than of the pollsters.

He told a meeting of the American Statistical Association in 1968 that some politicians engaged research organizations to prepare a poll and then re leased only those results that reflected favorably on their own interests.

“In the early days of an elec tion,” he commented, “publicopinion polls are little more than name‐recognition con tests.”

Mr. Roper was born July 31, 1900, in Hebron, Neb. After graduating from high school there, he attended the Univer versity of Minnesota and the University of Edinburgh.

He started his business career by opening a jewelry store in Creston, Iowa, in 1921. Seven years later, he gave up the store to become a clock salesman. He said later that one of the reasons he was able to make a good living at that job during the Depression was his technique of polling his customers on their likes and dislikes in clock styles.

Mr. Roper came to New York in 1933 and became a partner in a market research firm that did polls for various products. The firm, which eventually be came Roper Research As sociates, Inc., was engaged by Fortune magazine in 1935 to survey public opinion on broad er issues, and Mr. Roper was on his way.

Syndicated a Column

In addition to election polls, Mr. Roper did public opinion research for Fortune for 15 years. He also wrote a syndi cated column and was an editor at large of The Saturday Re view. During World War II he served as a deputy director of the Office of Strategic Serv ices.

Mr. Roper retired from his firm in 1966 although he re tained the title of senior con sultant. In recent years he had lived in his big Colonial home in West Redding.

Last February, in one of his last interviews, Mr. Roper spoke with a visitor about the swamp, once owned by the photogra pher Edward Steichen, outside his home. Mr. Roper was among the residents who contributed, to an investment group that purchased some of the Steichen land for use as a community, recreational area.

Looking wan and tired but still mentally alert, Mr. Roper noted that the neighborhood might become a little noisier when the recreation area opened. “But the swamp will be good for kids,” he said. “And Iɽ rather have people than housing developers.”


The Roper Organization

Under the direction of survey pioneer Elmo Roper, the Roper Organization conducted the landmark Fortune studies: over seventy survey projects undertaken between 1938 and 1949. These were formative years for both public opinion research and for America at large. The success and scope of these polls secured Roper as one of the forefathers of the field. The most prominent feature of this collection is the wide range of questions about World War II. Read about questions posed less than a year before the outbreak of war, asking Americans how they felt about the "war in Europe" and the leadership of Benito Mussolini. One poll conducted in September 1939 captures the public mood right as war began. Who were Americans rooting for during the conflict? What territories did they think should be defended by troops? What did they think would ultimately lead the United States into the war, if anything? Should the government sell supplies to the Allies, even if they couldn't pay us back? A poll conducted in December 1941 coincides with the attack on Pearl Harbor, which compelled the US to join the war. How did Americans feel about this attack? Would they be willing to work more hours without pay during this emergency? What should be done about the conscientious objectors? Many questions deal with Adolf Hitler and his conquest in Europe, and what to do with the German nation upon an Allied victory. Naturally, there are also many studies that focus on Franklin Delano Roosevelt's four terms as president. Questions are asked about his job performance, the New Deal, voter preferences in the elections, and his wartime policies. Is serving more than two terms a good or bad idea? Which political party would best keep the Americans out of war? Explore the public's opinions about one of America's most iconic presidents in this collection. Additionally, FDR even hired Elmo Roper and his organization to conduct polling on his behalf after Roper's election predictions proved correct. There are a host of other topics covered in these surveys, ranging from social issues to labor unions to gender differences. To what extent should free speech be protected? How were communists perceived on the eve of the Cold War? Did Americans support or reject the Marshall Plan? Who did they blame for labor strikes, the workers or the employers? Should large corporations be broken into several different, smaller companies? There are several questions dealing with race and racial differences, even asking which nationalities were "best" and which were "worst." What opinions did Americans have of Jewish people, before the war and its atrocities were known? A unique survey of women features questions about marriage, work life, morality, and sexuality. The documentation for many of the studies also features specifications given to the interviewers, regarding the wording and reasoning behind the questions. Scholars researching the history of polling and metadata should find this additional material illuminating. Explore all that the historical Roper Fortune collection has to offer.

"Elmo Roper Biography." Elmo Roper Biography. Accessed October 27, 2014. "

Roper Organization: 1940-1990s

In addition to the Roper Fortune studies, the Roper Organization conducted Roper Commercial polls from the earliest days of polling for four decades. These polls focused on a wide range of topics, from consumer behavior to elections. From the 1970s through the 1990s, the Roper Organization, later Roper ASW, produced Roper Reports polls that were equally broad in scope, covering subjects including whether women in public office would do better than men, how public schools should handle having large numbers of Spanish-speaking students, whether robots would lead to unemployment, and how Russia and the U.S. compared in military capability.

Time-series data from Roper Organization and Roper ASW polls were compiled and cleaned through the efforts of a joint research team, headed by Professor Henry Brady of the University of California-Berkeley and Professor Robert Putnam of Harvard. The Roper Social and Political Trends Data, 1973-1994 served as one of three primary datasets used extensively in the research reported in Putnam’s Bowling Alone: Collapse and Revival of American Community. This unique resource includes selected items from 207 public opinion surveys, with more than 400,000 unique respondents included in this cumulative file. Each survey contains a twelve-item battery of questions about participation in political and social activities as well as information about respondents' demographic characteristics. With varying frequency, these surveys also include a wide range of other social and civic activities ranging from volunteer work to church attendance to dinner with friends.

Roper Reports is now part of GfK and focuses on research into consumer behavior.


Elmo Roper Papers

The collection contains correspondence, speeches, speech cards, articles, newspaper clippings, and scrapbooks, some job files from Roper Research Associates, and a variety of press releases, advertisements, and legal papers from the various groups and corporations with which he was involved.

The main series are Correspondence, Articles, Speeches, Radio, Jobs and Scrapbooks. The Correspondence series contains a subset of personal materials, particularly in 1948 relating to the death of his son, James. The Articles Series contains Roper's published writings, chiefly from the Fortune Survey , the Saturday Review , and academic journals such as Public Opinion Quarterly . Roper sometimes spoke from a prepared text and sometimes from notes, and the Speeches series contains both full texts and a large set of speech cards. He would often base an article on a speech, and both versions are typically present. The Radio series contains the scripts for his weekly radio broadcasts on CBS and NBC. The Jobs series contains correspondence related to the obtaining and designing of several survey projects undertaken by Roper's research firm, and in some cases contain data as well. Notable among this series is a large job done for the Air Force after World War II surveying the opinions of both U.S. airmen and French locals about relations between airbases and the communities around them.

The correspondence, the most significant portion of the collection, typically contains the originals sent to him and carbons of his replies, includes a wide range of famous individuals, from U.S. Senators and Presidents to business leaders and notable members of the public opinion research community. Supplementary and background material is often included with the correspondence, which covers topics from the founding of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and the evolving nature of the public opinion polling industry to fundraising appeals for a variety of liberal causes and groups such as the Urban League, Planned Parenthood, and the Fund for the Republic, material from his tenure on the Connecticut Civil Rights Commission and his wartime work for the Office of Strategic Services and the Office of Production Management. There is a large quantity of material relating to the polls' failure in the 1948 presidential election, the subsequent public furor, and the attempts to figure out what had gone wrong. There are letters from academic and government figures on the polls' failings, and from the general public as well.

There is a particularly large quantity of material relating to his work for the Atlantic Union Committee and other organizations promoting political union of the United States and its western European allies, one of Roper's favorite causes. There are extensive financial and legal records from his business and personal life, including a real estate company and newspaper in Redding, and records of his charitable contributions. Other items of interest include letters from his son Bud (Burns) during his tenure in flight school and as a B17 copilot in WWII, family correspondence from the 1920s to 1971, wills and codicils, and a large quantity of letters and legal documents relating to the resolution of his parents' estates.

In 2007, a small collection of awards, certificates, citations and honors was added and placed in Series VI. In 2015, with the move of the Roper Center to Cornell University, a number of personal materials were added to the collection and placed in Series VII.

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Access

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Biography

Elmo Roper ( 1900-1971) was a pioneer in the fields of market research and public opinion polling. Born in Nebraska on 31 July 1900, he operated a jewelry store with his brother in Iowa in the 1920s. While not successful, the experience taught him the value of understanding what his customers wanted. He did his first customer research while employed by the Traub Company in the early 1930s, trying to find out why their products were not selling better, and in 1933 he co-founded one of the first market research firms, Cherington, Wood, and Roper.

Roper was director of the Fortune Survey, the first national poll based on scientific sampling techniques, from 1935 until 1950, and his correct prediction of the 1936 Franklin Roosevelt landslide over Alf Landon helped establish scientific polling as a viable industry. This was demonstrated in 1940 when FDR asked his organization and George Gallup's to do polling on the proposed Lend-Lease deal to send destroyers to England in order to gauge public support before going ahead.

During World War II, Roper was hired by "Wild Bill" Donovan to be deputy director of the Office of Strategic Services, in charge of finding the best men to staff the new intelligence agency. Roper helped convince George Marshall and Dwight Eisenhower of the importance of opinion research in the armed forces, overcoming opposition from others, and helped Donovan go outside channels to ensure that security at American industrial plants was sufficiently strong. He then became a "dollar-a-year" man for the Office of War Information, the Office of Production Management, and the Army and the Navy. His company also did work for the government, surveying the general public in order to set wartime production goals as well as prioritize the transition back to a peacetime economy.

Following the 1948 election, when the polls' spectacular failure to predict Harry Truman's comeback victory over Thomas Dewey caused the public opinion industry's greatest crisis, Roper led the public and private defense of polling, withstanding the scorn of comedians and politicians to call for a measured look at what had gone wrong and why. Behind the scenes his reassurance of his commercial clients (and the strength of his reputation) helped prevent market research from being damaged too greatly by the failure of the polls. While it would take some time for public confidence to return, polling managed to survive in part because of Roper's calls for calm and reason, and his frank admission of errors where they had occurred.

Roper was an editor-at-large for the Saturday Review, a founding member of the Connecticut Civil Rights Commission, a syndicated newspaper and radio columnist, and in his later years would be a perennial election and convention analyst on network television. A tireless activist for liberal causes, he was head of the fundraising arm of the Urban League right after the war, and served on the boards of the Fund for the Republic, and more than two dozen other groups and corporations from Planned Parenthood and the Children's Television Workshop to Tiffany's and Spiegel.

Roper was especially interested in the concept of Atlantic Union, which advocated greater political, economic, and military unity among the United States and western Europe to counterbalance the threat from the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact nations. He was a member of the US Citizen's Commission on NATO, and an important delegate to a convention in Paris that discussed the idea of Atlantic Union in 1962. Although he never finished college, Roper was the recipient of honorary degrees from Williams College, the University of Louisville, and the University of Minnesota, and was in constant demand as a speaker for the last thirty years of his life.

In 1946 Roper founded the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Williams College, the first social science data archives. To establish the basis for the Center's collection, Roper convinced fellow pioneers Gallup and Archibald Crossley to send their data to the Center as well, with the idea of assembling the kind of breadth and depth of data necessary for scholars and policymakers to make informed and responsible use of public opinion information. Now located at the University of Connecticut, the Roper Center is the world's largest repository of polling data, with collections spanning the globe and dating back to the 1930s.

Roper married Dorothy Shaw in the 1920s, and they had two sons, Burns and James. Burns was also an influential member of the opinion research community, succeeded his father as head of Roper Research Associates following Elmo's retirement. Roper died in 1971 in Redding, CT.


--> Roper, Elmo, 1900-1971

Elmo Roper (1900-1971) was a pioneer in the fields of market research and public opinion polling.

From the description of Elmo Roper papers, 1900-1972. (University of Connecticut). WorldCat record id: 52096773

Elmo Roper ( 1900-1971 ) was a pioneer in the fields of market research and public opinion polling. Born in Nebraska on 31 July 1900, he operated a jewelry store with his brother in Iowa in the 1920s. While not successful, the experience taught him the value of understanding what his customers wanted. He did his first customer research while employed by the Traub Company in the early 1930s, trying to find out why their products were not selling better, and in 1933 he co-founded one of the first market research firms, Cherington, Wood, and Roper .

Roper was director of the Fortune Survey, the first national poll based on scientific sampling techniques, from 1935 until 1950, and his correct prediction of the 1936 Franklin Roosevelt landslide over Alf Landon helped establish scientific polling as a viable industry. This was demonstrated in 1940 when FDR asked his organization and George Gallup 's to do polling on the proposed Lend-Lease deal to send destroyers to England in order to gauge public support before going ahead.

During World War II, Roper was hired by "Wild Bill" Donovan to be deputy director of the Office of Strategic Services, in charge of finding the best men to staff the new intelligence agency. Roper helped convince George Marshall and Dwight Eisenhower of the importance of opinion research in the armed forces, overcoming opposition from others, and helped Donovan go outside channels to ensure that security at American industrial plants was sufficiently strong. He then became a "dollar-a-year" man for the Office of War Information, the Office of Production Management, and the Army and the Navy. His company also did work for the government, surveying the general public in order to set wartime production goals as well as prioritize the transition back to a peacetime economy.

Following the 1948 election, when the polls' spectacular failure to predict Harry Truman 's comeback victory over Thomas Dewey caused the public opinion industry's greatest crisis, Roper led the public and private defense of polling, withstanding the scorn of comedians and politicians to call for a measured look at what had gone wrong and why. Behind the scenes his reassurance of his commercial clients (and the strength of his reputation) helped prevent market research from being damaged too greatly by the failure of the polls. While it would take some time for public confidence to return, polling managed to survive in part because of Roper's calls for calm and reason, and his frank admission of errors where they had occurred.

Roper was an editor-at-large for the Saturday Review, a founding member of the Connecticut Civil Rights Commission, a syndicated newspaper and radio columnist, and in his later years would be a perennial election and convention analyst on network television. A tireless activist for liberal causes, he was head of the fundraising arm of the Urban League right after the war, and served on the boards of the Fund for the Republic, and more than two dozen other groups and corporations from Planned Parenthood and the Children's Television Workshop to Tiffany's and Spiegel .

Roper was especially interested in the concept of Atlantic Union, which advocated greater political, economic, and military unity among the United States and western Europe to counterbalance the threat from the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact nations. He was a member of the US Citizen's Commission on NATO, and an important delegate to a convention in Paris that discussed the idea of Atlantic Union in 1962. Although he never finished college, Roper was the recipient of honorary degrees from Williams College, the University of Louisville, and the University of Minnesota, and was in constant demand as a speaker for the last thirty years of his life.

In 1946 Roper founded the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Williams College, the first social science data archives. To establish the basis for the Center's collection, Roper convinced fellow pioneers Gallup and Archibald Crossley to send their data to the Center as well, with the idea of assembling the kind of breadth and depth of data necessary for scholars and policymakers to make informed and responsible use of public opinion information. Now located at the University of Connecticut, the Roper Center is the world's largest repository of polling data, with collections spanning the globe and dating back to the 1930s.

Roper married Dorothy Shaw in the 1920s, and they had two sons, Burns and James. Burns was also an influential member of the opinion research community, succeeded his father as head of Roper Research Associates following Elmo's retirement. Roper died in 1971 in Redding, CT .

From the guide to the Elmo Roper Papers., 1909-1972, (Archives & Special Collections at the Thomas J. Dodd Research Center)


The history of pollsters blowing it decades before Trump vs. Biden

George Gallup had something to prove: Straw polls were useless.

The typical method for a straw poll in the 1930s went like this: A newspaper or magazine printed a sample ballot in its pages, and readers would fill it out and send it in. Based on all of the responses, the newspaper would make a prediction.

Gallup, who had pursued a PhD in psychology and worked in ad research, thought straw polls were nonsense. Really, you were just surveying the type of people who read the newspaper, cut something out and mailed it. Not exactly representative of the electorate.

Rather than measure the opinion of a large number of the same type of person, Gallup developed a system of “quota sampling” — surveying a small cross-section of Americans who mirror the demographics of the entire population — to get a supposedly more accurate measure. In the United States, he calculated that could be done with 3,000 people from different regions and of different ages, races, educational backgrounds, etc.

That’s how Gallup ushered in the modern era of polling — a method that failed to predict Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and underestimated the strength of the president’s support against Democratic challenger Joe Biden this week. On Thursday night, Trump accused pollsters of intentionally using their surveys in battleground states to suppress Republican turnout, including a Washington Post poll in Wisconsin.

While the nation waits for an outcome in the agonizingly close 2020 election, it’s worth examining how we came to rely on polls.

As historian Jill Lepore explained in the New Yorker in 2015, the word “poll” used to mean “head,” as in, the thing being counted when voting “involved assembling (all in favor of Smith stand here, all in favor of Jones over there).” The term “straw poll” evolved from an old expression about throwing hay into the air to see which way the wind was blowing, according to William Safire.

In the mid-1930s, Gallup got an important ally to help prove his theory. In her memoir “Personal History,” Washington Post publisher Katharine Graham wrote about her father, then-publisher Eugene Meyer, taking interest in his new polling method. At the time, Gallup’s “polls weren’t taken very seriously,” she wrote, but “ever the logical thinker, and having always put a premium on the importance of research, my father signed the first contract with Gallup and ran his polls on the front page.”

By the 1936 election between President Franklin D. Roosevelt and his Republican challenger, Kansas governor Alf Landon, the best-known straw poll was conducted by the magazine Literary Digest. Its method wasn’t exactly scientific. The digest would randomly select millions of addresses in the phone book and car registration data, and then send postcards to those addresses asking for whom the recipient planned to vote.

Gallup spotted a big problem with this method: By only polling people with cars and phones, they had no input from the poor, who couldn’t afford either. Poorer voters largely broke for Roosevelt.

Using his quota sampling system and in-person interviews, he predicted Roosevelt would win reelection. Not only that, he predicted what the Literary Digest would predict — a win for Landon with 56 percent of the vote — and explained why the magazine would be wrong.

Roosevelt was reelected, and Gallup prevailed though, in a bit of foreshadowing, he was way off on the margin of victory.


The Political Scientist Who Warned Us About Polls

David Greenberg, a professor of history and journalism and media studies at Rutgers, is a contributing editor at Politico Magazine. He is the author of several works of political history including, most recently, Republic of Spin: An Inside History of the American Presidency.

Every era enshrines its prophets. Politics today has whiz kids like Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Harry Enten and Dave Wasserman, who have achieved varying degrees of cultural celebrity by telling us what to expect come Election Day &mdash even when, as happened once again this week, their vision proves cloudy (or worse). In 1948 there was no greater prophet than George Gallup, whose face graced the cover of Time magazine in May of that year. The accompanying profile called him &ldquothe Babe Ruth of the polling profession.&rdquo

Gallup&rsquos name had by then become synonymous with a wide-ranging new effort by survey-takers and statisticians who were striving to know, with scientific precision, the very nature of American mind, including which presidents the public meant to elect. Gallup had rocketed to fame in 1936 by confidently declaring that the Literary Digest &mdash at the time the gold standard of polls, which was forecasting FDR&rsquos defeat in the fall election &mdash would be wrong. FDR won in a landslide, in what turned out to be (on Literary Digest&rsquos part) a historic polling fail.

Though hailed for his clairvoyance in 1936, Gallup eventually found himself, too, attacked for arrogance and short-sightedness. Like the other big-name pollsters of the day, Elmo Roper and Archibald Crossley, Gallup predicted in 1948 that New York Attorney General Tom Dewey would rout President Harry Truman in the fall election. Although Gallup&rsquos data had detected Truman making gains toward the end of the campaign, he had never placed Truman within five points of his Republican rival. Elmo Roper did even worse his final survey for Fortune magazine, in October, said Dewey would take 44 percent of the vote, Truman 31 percent. &ldquoSo decisive are the figures given here this month,&rdquo the editors wrote, &ldquothat Fortune, and Mr. Roper, plan no further detailed reports on the change of opinion in the forthcoming presidential campaign.&rdquo Other journalists also took the pollsters&rsquo word for it. Newsweek asked 50 political writers who would win. All said Dewey. The New York Times predicted that Dewey would win with 345 electoral votes. Life put Dewey on its next cover, before Election Day was over.

But, of course, it was Truman who defeated Dewey, not the other way around. It was a polling failure worthy of 2016 or 2020. (To give a sense of the misfire this year: Going into Election Day, 538 put Biden&rsquos Florida lead at 2.5 percent while Real Clear Politics put it at .9 percent Trump is now ahead there by 3.4 percent with 96 percent of votes counted &mdash an error of between 4.3 and 5.9 percent). And just as those who prognosticated a Biden romp this week are looking egg-faced, so journalists who hitched their reportage to Gallup&rsquos data came in for jeers. Some cheered the pundits&rsquo and the pollsters&rsquo comeuppance. In the New Republic, Richard Strout, writing under his usual pseudonym &ldquoT.R.B.,&rdquo celebrated &ldquoa glowing and wonderful sense that the American people couldn&rsquot be ticketed by polls [and] knew its own mind.&rdquo

No one relished this epic fail more than the distinguished Columbia University political scientist Lindsay Rogers. For years, Rogers had been thundering about the unreliability of polling and &mdash more importantly &mdashthe groundless faith that people placed in it. In an exquisite bit of timing, Rogers published a book in 1949 entitled The Pollsters. (The coinage, wags noted, evoked the term hucksters, though Rogers denied any intentional allusion.) Rogers&rsquo polemic was a rebuttal, of sort, to a book that Gallup himself had published a few years earlier, called The Pulse of Democracy.


‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Disaster Haunts Pollsters

Political pollsters quite accurately boast of the reliability of their science, but polling’s biggest ever goof remains alive 50 years later in a headline seared into America’s collective memory: “Dewey Defeats Truman.”

Fifty years ago this month, all major polls predicted victory for New York Gov. Thomas Dewey over Harry Truman, the incumbent president. Reasons for that mistake are still a cause of debate.

“I don’t think the polls were wrong in terms of measuring national sentiment,” said Burns W. “Bud” Roper, retired chairman of Roper Starch Worldwide and son of pioneering pollster Elmo Roper. “Clearly they were wrong in determining the election. I think the 1948 polls were more accurate than the 1948 election.”

Far from killing the fledgling industry, which had become popular in the 1930s, the pollsters’ embarrassing mistake laid the foundation for modern polling techniques. It also offered a valuable reminder that “it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

“We stopped polling a few weeks too soon,” said George Gallup Jr., co-chairman of the Gallup organization and son and namesake of another of polling’s giants. “We had been lulled into thinking that nothing much changes in the last few weeks of the campaign.”

The problem was that major pollsters of the day, Elmo Roper, George Gallup and Archibald M. Crossley, cut their teeth on elections involving Franklin D. Roosevelt.

“Roosevelt was the issue. People were either for him or against him. The whole thing was built around Roosevelt,” said Burns Roper, explaining the approach to polling in presidential elections of 1936, 1940 and 1944.

In the 1948 presidential election, there was no Roosevelt, but a field of the two major candidates, as well as Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond and Progressive Party candidate Henry Wallace.

The polls predicted a Dewey victory of between 5 to 15 percentage points, but Truman won by 4.4 percentage points. The labor vote was energized as Democrats worried about Dewey’s strength in preelection polls, and Republicans felt their candidate would win “so they played golf that day,” Roper said.

The offspring of the famous pollsters from 1948 remember the days around the election as stressful.

Helen Crossley recalls “a very tense household” as her father worried aloud that Truman, who drew increasingly enthusiastic crowds at his preelection speeches, was gaining momentum. George Gallup Jr. says his father had to visit many newspaper clients after the election to lure them back after 30 canceled their poll service. Burns Roper said the election came just weeks after the suicide of his brother, and he recalled that he and his father voted for Truman.

“It sort of looked like the end of the world,” Roper said. “It was the definition of mixed emotions. We saw our man winning, but our company going down the tubes.”

Roper company officials huddled and came up with an approach for Elmo Roper’s next newspaper column: “We were wrong. We couldn’t have been more wrong. We’re going to find out why.”

The polling pioneers admitted their mistakes, reexamined their methods and plunged back to work. They moved gradually away from quota sampling, which questioned a set number of people from different ethnic and age groups, and moved toward random sampling. They extended polling deadlines up until election day and developed their ability to predict those likely to come out and vote.

“Political polling was non-probability, and for a number of years they got away with it,” says New York pollster Warren Mitofsky, a pioneer of random-digit dialing and the use of extensive telephone sampling 20 years ago. “In 1948, they got burned.”

There’s never been a comparable election disaster since 1948, when all the major players picked the wrong winner, said Tom W. Smith, director of the general social survey at the National Opinion Research Center in Chicago. The scale of the disaster was such that a panel of scientists analyzed the industry for the Social Science Research Council.

Since then, preelection polls have become far more accurate, although some years are more precise than others. The margin of Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory was underestimated by some pollsters, for example.

While the polling industry has made progress in methods of sampling and poll timing, it still has plenty to learn about probability methods and the wording and order of questions, Mitofsky said.

“Identifying likely voters is still a mystery to most polling organizations,” he said.

And a big lesson for pollsters from 1948 still holds true today.

“There’s a lot of room for humility in polling,” Mitofsky said. “Every time you get cocky, you lose.”


About

The Social Science Research Council (SSRC) has been in operation for more than ninety years. We present this timeline of organizational achievements and other highlights during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. For more detailed accounts of the SSRC’s history, see our one-page history of the SSRC and Social Science Research Council, 1923–1998. The SSRC’s records are stored in the Rockefeller Archive Center, Sleepy Hollow, New York.

SSRC: 90 Years of Impact

Early History

1923: Led by American Political Science Association president Charles E. Merriam, the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) holds its inaugural meeting.

1924: The SSRC begins planning its first committees to study such topics as Interracial Relations, Scientific Aspects of Human Migration, and the Eighteenth Amendment.

1928: The Advisory Committee on Business Research, whose members include New York State Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt, is founded, signaling the Council’s commitment to research on business practices, ethics, and industry relations.

1935: The SSRC establishes the Washington, DC–based Committee on Social Security. Its research is critical to the creation of the U.S. Social Security system.

1936: Ralph Bunche, Margaret Mead, and Grayson Kirk are among a cohort of scholars receiving fellowship support from the SSRC.

1937: The SSRC commissions 13 research memoranda to record and analyze the influence of the Great Depression on American society. Topics include crime, education, the family, internal migration, minorities, religion, consumption, health, and social work.

1942: With the American Council of Learned Societies (ACLS) and the National Research Council, the SSRC establishes the Committee on Latin American Studies. One of several new committees founded with the ACLS, it marks the beginning of the Council’s work focused on developing US expertise on world regions.

1945: George Gallup, Elmo Roper, and Frank Stanton are founding members of the Committee on Measurement of Opinion, Attitudes, and Consumer Wants, which examines problems of sampling, of biases introduced by interviewers, and of the use of panels of responses in repetitive surveys.

Post–World War II

1947: Robert B. Hall publishes his influential Area Studies: With Special Reference to Their Implications for Research in the Social Sciences, sponsored by the SSRC’s Exploratory Committee on World Area Research. It warns of scholarly ignorance about many areas of the world and recommends a sweeping educational initiative. Within two years, committees on Slavic and East European Studies and Southern Asia are established.

1947: The SSRC publishes The Reduction of Intergroup Tensions: A Survey of Research on Problems of Ethnic, Racial, and Religious Group Relations.

1949: Future Nobel Prize winner Simon Kuznets chairs the SSRC’s Committee on Economic Growth, which for two decades shaped basic theory and quantitative research methods in economics. Over the next few decades, future Nobel laureates in economics would participate in the Council’s work in this area: Herbert Simon, Lawrence Klein, James Tobin, George Stigler, Franco Modigliani, and George Akerlof. Much more recently, Paul Krugman was involved in developing our work on the privatization of risk.

1954: The SSRC establishes the Committee on Comparative Politics, chaired by Gabriel Almond. It sponsors pioneering work in the area of modernization and development in the wake of decolonization.

1956: The SSRC creates the Committee on National Security Policy Research members include Henry Kissinger. Subsequent Council programs covering international affairs topics attract the participation of other prominent foreign policy figures and commentators including John Lewis Gaddis, Zbigniew Brzezinski, McGeorge Bundy, Robert Keohane, William Pfaff, Condoleezza Rice, and George Shultz.

1959: The SSRC, with the ACLS, forms committees on Contemporary China, the Near and Middle East, and African Studies.

1961: Responding to breakthroughs in scientific research, the SSRC founds a committee on Genetics and Behavior.

1963: The SSRC establishes the Committee on Sociolinguistics, which brings together specialists in linguistics, sociology, and anthropology to study the interaction of languages and societies. This eventually leads to the creation of the field of sociolinguistics.

1968: To improve scholarly relations with the Soviet Union, SSRC and ACLS jointly form the International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX). Following the sweeping changes some thirty years later, IREX established itself as an independent organization.

1968: Double-digit increases in global trade and advances in macroeconomic modeling influence the Committee on Economic Stability and Growth’s decision to launch Project LINK, a cooperative, international research activity aimed at understanding the economic relationships that bind countries into a global economy.

1972: Ping pong diplomacy and the U.S.-China agreement to develop mutually beneficial contacts lead the SSRC, ACLS, and National Academy of Sciences to found the Committee on Scholarly Communication with the People’s Republic of China, which becomes the leading U.S. structure for educational exchange with the PRC.

1972: As a result of U.S. government interest in addressing social problems that go beyond economic considerations, a social indicators movement emerges, and the SSRC opens a Washington office for its newly created Center for Coordination of Research on Social Indicators. For the next 11 years, the SSRC works with researchers and government agencies to lay a scientific foundation for research on social indicators and to bring this research into the social sciences.

1975: The SSRC launches inquiries into the learning process and giftedness. It recruits leading researchers such as Howard Gardner to help shape this work.

1976: Seeking to expand the study of child development, the SSRC convenes a committee on Social and Affective Development during Childhood. Related research is conducted by the Committee on Biosocial Perspectives on Parent Behavior and Offspring Development.

1983: The Indochina Studies Program begins to lay the groundwork for future scholarly communications with Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. The initiative reflects the SSRC’s longstanding ability to develop programs in regions that have difficult political relations with the United States. The SSRC would later initiate programs with Cuban and Iranian social scientists. Its programs on Cuba and Vietnam remain active today.

1985: The SSRC founds the Committee on International Peace and Security and extends the concept of security beyond military and technology issues to include nationalism and ethnic conflict, international ethics, the environment, and sustainable development. It also encourages collaboration among anthropologists, psychologists, and physicists.

1988: William Julius Wilson and Marta Tienda are named to the SSRC’s newly established Committee on Research on the Urban Underclass, whose seminars attract participants from federal agencies and congressional committees.

1989: The SSRC-Mellon Minority Fellowship Program is announced with the goals of increasing the number of African Americans, Latinos/as, and Native Americans in core fields within the arts and sciences and of diversifying the faculties at colleges and universities.

Post–Cold War

1991: The SSRC establishes the Abe Fellowship Program, and an office in Tokyo, to provide fellowships to U.S. and Japanese researchers to study emerging global issues, problems in advanced industrial societies, and U.S.-Japan relations.

1994: The SSRC forms the Committee on International Migration, which sponsors, among many publications, the award-winning Handbook of International Migration: An American Experience.

1996: An integrating global economy and more fluid, complex relations between the world’s peoples, states, and regions lead the SSRC to restructure its area studies programs. Collaborative Research Networks and Regional Advisory Panels are named, creating multinational approaches to issues that are both global and local.

2001: In the aftermath of the September 2001 terrorist attacks, the Council develops a website featuring commentaries from leading social scientists from around the world. The site attracts more than one million visitors and leads to the publication of two books.

2002: Recognizing the impact of the global HIV/AIDS health crisis, the Council announces an initiative to provide research and analysis on societies affected by the disease and contribute to the knowledge base of policymakers and the international donor community.


The New World Order

In the mainline media, those who adhere to the position that there is some kind of "conspiracy" pushing us towards a world government are virulently ridiculed. The standard attack maintains that the so-called "New World Order" is the product of turn-of-the-century, right-wing, bigoted, anti-semitic racists acting in the tradition of the long-debunked Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion, now promulgated by some Militias and other right-wing hate groups.

The historical record does not support that position to any large degree but it has become the mantra of the socialist left and their cronies, the media.

The term "New World Order" has been used thousands of times in this century by proponents in high places of federalized world government. Some of those involved in this collaboration to achieve world order have been Jewish. The preponderance are not, so it most definitely is not a Jewish agenda.

For years, leaders in education, industry, the media, banking, etc., have promoted those with the same Weltanschauung (world view) as theirs. Of course, someone might say that just because individuals promote their friends doesn't constitute a conspiracy. That's true in the usual sense. However, it does represent an "open conspiracy," as described by noted Fabian Socialist H.G. Wells in The Open Conspiracy: Blue Prints for a World Revolution (1928).

In 1913, prior to the passage of the Federal Reserve Act President Wilson's The New Freedom was published, in which he revealed:

"Since I entered politics, I have chiefly had men's views confided to me privately. Some of the biggest men in the U. S., in the field of commerce and manufacturing, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it."

On November 21, 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt wrote a letter to Col. Edward Mandell House, President Woodrow Wilson's close advisor:

"The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the larger centers has owned the Government every since the days of Andrew Jackson. "

That there is such a thing as a cabal of power brokers who control government behind the scenes has been detailed several times in this century by credible sources. Professor Carroll Quigley was Bill Clinton's mentor at Georgetown University. President Clinton has publicly paid homage to the influence Professor Quigley had on his life. In Quigley's magnum opus Tragedy and Hope (1966), he states:

"There does exist and has existed for a generation, an international. network which operates, to some extent, in the way the radical right believes the Communists act. In fact, this network, which we may identify as the Round Table Groups, has no aversion to cooperating with the Communists, or any other groups and frequently does so. I know of the operations of this network because I have studied it for twenty years and was permitted for two years, in the early 1960s, to examine its papers and secret records. I have no aversion to it or to most of its aims and have, for much of my life, been close to it and to many of its instruments. I have objected, both in the past and recently, to a few of its policies. but in general my chief difference of opinion is that it wishes to remain unknown, and I believe its role in history is significant enough to be known."

Even talk show host Rush Limbaugh, an outspoken critic of anyone claiming a push for global government, said on his February 7, 1995 program:

"You see, if you amount to anything in Washington these days, it is because you have been plucked or handpicked from an Ivy League school -- Harvard, Yale, Kennedy School of Government -- you've shown an aptitude to be a good Ivy League type, and so you're plucked so-to-speak, and you are assigned success. You are assigned a certain role in government somewhere, and then your success is monitored and tracked, and you go where the pluckers and the handpickers can put you."

On May 4, 1993, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) president Leslie Gelb said on The Charlie Rose Show that:

". you [Charlie Rose] had me on [before] to talk about the New World Order! I talk about it all the time. It's one world now. The Council [CFR] can find, nurture, and begin to put people in the kinds of jobs this country needs. And that's going to be one of the major enterprises of the Council under me."

Previous CFR chairman, John J. McCloy (1953-70), actually said they have been doing this since the 1940s (and before).

The thrust towards global government can be well-documented but at the end of the twentieth century it does not look like a traditional conspiracy in the usual sense of a secret cabal of evil men meeting clandestinely behind closed doors. Rather, it is a "networking" of like-minded individuals in high places to achieve a common goal, as described in Marilyn Ferguson's 1980 insider classic, The Aquarian Conspiracy.

Perhaps the best way to relate this would be a brief history of the New World Order, not in our words but in the words of those who have been striving to make it real.

1912 -- Colonel Edward M. House, a close advisor of President Woodrow Wilson, publishes Phillip Dru: Administrator in which he promotes "socialism as dreamed of by Karl Marx."

1913 -- The Federal Reserve (neither federal nor a reserve) is created. It was planned at a secret meeting in 1910 on Jekyl Island, Georgia by a group of bankers and politicians, including Col. House. This transferred the power to create money from the American government to a private group of bankers. It is probably the largest generator of debt in the world.

May 30, 1919 -- Prominent British and American personalities establish the Royal Institute of International Affairs in England and the Institute of International Affairs in the U.S. at a meeting arranged by Col. House attended by various Fabian socialists, including noted economist John Maynard Keynes. Two years later, Col. House reorganizes the Institute of International Affairs into the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

December 15, 1922 -- The CFR endorses World Government in its magazine Foreign Affairs. Author Philip Kerr, states:

"Obviously there is going to be no peace or prosperity for mankind as long as [the earth] remains divided into 50 or 60 independent states until some kind of international system is created. The real problem today is that of the world government."

1928 -- The Open Conspiracy: Blue Prints for a World Revolution by H.G. Well is published. A former Fabian Socialist, Wells writes:

"The political world of the into a Open Conspiracy must weaken, efface, incorporate and supersede existing governments. The Open Conspiracy is the natural inheritor of socialist and communist enthusiasms it may be in control of Moscow before it is in control of New York. The character of the Open Conspiracy will now be plainly displayed. It will be a world religion."

1931 -- Students at the Lenin School of Political Warfare in Moscow are taught:

"One day we shall start to spread the most theatrical peace movement the world has ever seen. The capitalist countries, stupid and decadent. will fall into the trap offered by the possibility of making new friends. Our day will come in 30 years or so. The bourgeoisie must be lulled into a false sense of security.

1932 -- New books are published urging World Order:

Toward Soviet America by William Z. Foster. Head of the Communist Party USA, Foster indicates that a National Department of Education would be one of the means used to develop a new socialist society in the U.S.

The New World Order by F.S. Marvin, describing the League of Nations as the first attempt at a New World Order. Marvin says, "nationality must rank below the claims of mankind as a whole."

Dare the School Build a New Social Order? is published. Educator author George Counts asserts that:

". the teachers should deliberately reach for power and then make the most of their conquest" in order to "influence the social attitudes, ideals and behavior of the coming generation. The growth of science and technology has carried us into a new age where ignorance must be replaced by knowledge, competition by cooperation, trust in Providence by careful planning and private capitalism by some form of social economy."

1933 -- The first Humanist Manifesto is published. Co-author John Dewey, the noted philosopher and educator, calls for a synthesizing of all religions and "a socialized and cooperative economic order."

Co-signer C.F. Potter said in 1930:

"Education is thus a most powerful ally of humanism, and every American public school is a school of humanism. What can the theistic Sunday schools, meeting for an hour once a week, teaching only a fraction of the children, do to stem the tide of a five-day program of humanistic teaching?

1933 -- The Shape of Things to Come by H.G. Wells is published. Wells predicts a second world war around 1940, originating from a German-Polish dispute. After 1945 there would be an increasing lack of public safety in "criminally infected" areas. The plan for the "Modern World-State" would succeed on its third attempt (about 1980), and come out of something that occurred in Basra, Iraq.

"Although world government had been plainly coming for some years, although it had been endlessly feared and murmured against, it found no opposition prepared anywhere."

1934 -- The Externalization of the Hierarchy by Alice A. Bailey is published. Bailey is an occultist, whose works are channeled from a spirit guide, the Tibetan Master [demon spirit] Djwahl Kuhl. Bailey uses the phrase "points of light" in connection with a "New Group of World Servers" and claims that 1934 marks the beginning of "the organizing of the men and women. group work of a new order. [with] progress defined by service. the world of the Brotherhood. the Forces of Light. [and] out of the spoliation of all existing culture and civilization, the new world order must be built."

The book is published by the Lucis Trust, incorporated originally in New York as the Lucifer Publishing Company. Lucis Trust is a United Nations NGO and has been a major player at the recent U.N. summits. Later Assistant Secretary General of the U.N. Robert Mueller would credit the creation of his World Core Curriculum for education to the underlying teachings of Djwahl Kuhl via Alice Bailey's writings on the subject.

1932 -- Plan for Peace by American Birth Control League founder Margaret Sanger (1921) is published. She calls for coercive sterilization, mandatory segregation, and rehabilitative concentration camps for all "dysgenic stocks" including Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Catholics.

October 28, 1939 -- In an address by John Foster Dulles, later U.S. Secretary of State, he proposes that America lead the transition to a new order of less independent, semi-sovereign states bound together by a league or federal union.

1939 -- New World Order by H. G. Wells proposes a collectivist one-world state"' or "new world order" comprised of "socialist democracies." He advocates "universal conscription for service" and declares that "nationalist individualism. is the world's disease." He continues:

"The manifest necessity for some collective world control to eliminate warfare and the less generally admitted necessity for a collective control of the economic and biological life of mankind, are aspects of one and the same process." He proposes that this be accomplished through "universal law" and propaganda (or education)."

1940 -- The New World Order is published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and contains a select list of references on regional and world federation, together with some special plans for world order after the war.

December 12, 1940 -- In The Congressional Record an article entitled A New World Order John G. Alexander calls for a world federation.

1942 -- The leftist Institute of Pacific Relations publishes Post War Worlds by P.E. Corbett:

"World government is the ultimate aim. It must be recognized that the law of nations takes precedence over national law. The process will have to be assisted by the deletion of the nationalistic material employed in educational textbooks and its replacement by material explaining the benefits of wiser association."

June 28, 1945 -- President Truman endorses world government in a speech:

"It will be just as easy for nations to get along in a republic of the world as it is for us to get along in a republic of the United States."

October 24, 1945 -- The United Nations Charter becomes effective. Also on October 24, Senator Glen Taylor (D-Idaho) introduces Senate Resolution 183 calling upon the U.S. Senate to go on record as favoring creation of a world republic including an international police force.

1946 -- Alger Hiss is elected President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Hiss holds this office until 1949. Early in 1950, he is convicted of perjury and sentenced to prison after a sensational trial and Congressional hearing in which Whittaker Chambers, a former senior editor of Time, testifies that Hiss was a member of his Communist Party cell.

1946 -- The Teacher and World Government by former editor of the NEA Journal (National Education Association) Joy Elmer Morgan is published. He says:

"In the struggle to establish an adequate world government, the teacher. can do much to prepare the hearts and minds of children for global understanding and cooperation. At the very heart of all the agencies which will assure the coming of world government must stand the school, the teacher, and the organized profession."

1947 -- The American Education Fellowship, formerly the Progressive Education Association, organized by John Dewey, calls for the:

". establishment of a genuine world order, an order in which national sovereignty is subordinate to world authority. "

October, 1947 -- NEA Associate Secretary William Carr writes in the NEA Journal that teachers should:

". teach about the various proposals that have been made for the strengthening of the United Nations and the establishment of a world citizenship and world government."

1948 -- Walden II by behavioral psychologist B.F. Skinner proposes "a perfect society or new and more perfect order" in which children are reared by the State, rather than by their parents and are trained from birth to demonstrate only desirable behavior and characteristics. Skinner's ideas would be widely implemented by educators in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s as Values Clarification and Outcome Based Education.

July, 1948 -- Britain's Sir Harold Butler, in the CFR's Foreign Affairs, sees "a New World Order" taking shape:

"How far can the life of nations, which for centuries have thought of themselves as distinct and unique, be merged with the life of other nations? How far are they prepared to sacrifice a part of their sovereignty without which there can be no effective economic or political union. Out of the prevailing confusion a new world is taking shape. which may point the way toward the new order. That will be the beginning of a real United Nations, no longer crippled by a split personality, but held together by a common faith."

1948 -- UNESCO president and Fabian Socialist, Sir Julian Huxley, calls for a radical eugenic policy in UNESCO: Its Purpose and Its Philosophy. He states:

"Thus, even though it is quite true that any radical eugenic policy of controlled human breeding will be for many years politically and psychologically impossible, it will be important for UNESCO to see that the eugenic problem is examined with the greatest care and that the public mind is informed of the issues at stake that much that is now unthinkable may at least become thinkable."

1948 -- The preliminary draft of a World Constitution is published by U.S. educators advocating regional federation on the way toward world federation or government with England incorporated into a European federation.

The Constitution provides for a "World Council" along with a "Chamber of Guardians" to enforce world law. Also included is a "Preamble" calling upon nations to surrender their arms to the world government, and includes the right of this "Federal Republic of the World" to seize private property for federal use.

February 9, 1950 -- The Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee introduces Senate Concurrent Resolution 66 which begins:

"Whereas, in order to achieve universal peace and justice, the present Charter of the United Nations should be changed to provide a true world government constitution."

The resolution was first introduced in the Senate on September 13, 1949 by Senator Glen Taylor (D-Idaho). Senator Alexander Wiley (R-Wisconsin) called it "a consummation devoutly to be wished for" and said, "I understand your proposition is either change the United Nations, or change or create, by a separate convention, a world order." Senator Taylor later stated:

"We would have to sacrifice considerable sovereignty to the world organization to enable them to levy taxes in their own right to support themselves."

April 12, 1952 -- John Foster Dulles, later to become Secretary of State, says in a speech to the American Bar Association in Louisville, Kentucky, that "treaty laws can override the Constitution." He says treaties can take power away from Congress and give them to the President. They can take powers from the States and give them to the Federal Government or to some international body and they can cut across the rights given to the people by their constitutional Bill of Rights.

A Senate amendment, proposed by GOP Senator John Bricker, would have provided that no treaty could supersede the Constitution, but it fails to pass by one vote.

1954 -- Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands establishes the Bilderbergers, international politicians and bankers who meet secretly on an annual basis.

1958 -- World Peace through World Law is published, where authors Grenville Clark and Louis Sohn advocate using the U.N. as a governing body for the world, world disarmament, a world police force and legislature.

1959 -- The Council on Foreign Relations calls for a New International Order. Study Number 7, issued on November 25, advocated:

". new international order [which] must be responsive to world aspirations for peace, for social and economic change. an international order. including states labeling themselves as 'socialist' [communist]."

1959 -- The World Constitution and Parliament Association is founded which later develops a Diagram of World Government under the Constitution for the Federation of Earth.

1959 -- The Mid-Century Challenge to U.S. Foreign Policy is published, sponsored by the Rockefeller Brothers' Fund. It explains that the U.S.:

". cannot escape, and indeed should welcome. the task which history has imposed on us. This is the task of helping to shape a new world order in all its dimensions -- spiritual, economic, political, social."

September 9, 1960 -- President Eisenhower signs Senate Joint Resolution 170, promoting the concept of a federal Atlantic Union. Pollster and Atlantic Union Committee treasurer, Elmo Roper, later delivers an address titled, The Goal Is Government of All the World, in which he states:

"For it becomes clear that the first step toward World Government cannot be completed until we have advanced on the four fronts: the economic, the military, the political and the social."

1961 -- The U.S. State Department issues a plan to disarm all nations and arm the United Nations. State Department Document Number 7277 is entitled Freedom From War: The U.S. Program for General and Complete Disarmament in a Peaceful World. It details a three-stage plan to disarm all nations and arm the U.N. with the final stage in which "no state would have the military power to challenge the progressively strengthened U.N. Peace Force."

1962 -- New Calls for World Federalism. In a study titled, A World Effectively Controlled by the United Nations, CFR member Lincoln Bloomfield states:

". if the communist dynamic was greatly abated, the West might lose whatever incentive it has for world government."

The Future of Federalism by author Nelson Rockefeller is published. The one-time Governor of New York, claims that current events compellingly demand a "new world order," as the old order is crumbling, and there is "a new and free order struggling to be born." Rockefeller says there is:

"a fever of nationalism. [but] the nation-state is becoming less and less competent to perform its international political tasks. These are some of the reasons pressing us to lead vigorously toward the true building of a new world order. [with] voluntary service. and our dedicated faith in the brotherhood of all mankind. Sooner perhaps than we may realize. there will evolve the bases for a federal structure of the free world."

1963 -- J. William Fulbright, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee speaks at a symposium sponsored by the Fund for the Republic, a left-wing project of the Ford Foundation:

"The case for government by elites is irrefutable. government by the people is possible but highly improbable."

1964 -- Taxonomy of Educational Objectives, Handbook II is published. Author Benjamin Bloom states:

". a large part of what we call 'good teaching' is the teacher's ability to attain affective objectives through challenging the students' fixed beliefs."

His Outcome-Based Education (OBE) method of teaching would first be tried as Mastery Learning in Chicago schools. After five years, Chicago students' test scores had plummeted causing outrage among parents. OBE would leave a trail of wreckage wherever it would be tried and under whatever name it would be used. At the same time, it would become crucial to globalists for overhauling the education system to promote attitude changes among school students.

1964 -- Visions of Order by Richard Weaver is published. He describes:

"progressive educators as a 'revolutionary cabal' engaged in 'a systematic attempt to undermine society's traditions and beliefs.'"

1967 -- Richard Nixon calls for New World Order. In Asia after Vietnam, in the October issue of Foreign Affairs, Nixon writes of nations' dispositions to evolve regional approaches to development needs and to the evolution of a "new world order."

1968 -- Joy Elmer Morgan, former editor of the NEA Journal publishes The American Citizens Handbook in which he says:

"the coming of the United Nations and the urgent necessity that it evolve into a more comprehensive form of world government places upon the citizens of the United States an increased obligation to make the most of their citizenship which now widens into active world citizenship."

July 26, 1968 -- Nelson Rockefeller pledges support of the New World Order. In an Associated Press report, Rockefeller pledges that, "as President, he would work toward international creation of a new world order."

1970 -- Education and the mass media promote world order. In Thinking About A New World Order for the Decade 1990, author Ian Baldwin, Jr. asserts that:

". the World Law Fund has begun a worldwide research and educational program that will introduce a new, emerging discipline -- world order -- into educational curricula throughout the world. and to concentrate some of its energies on bringing basic world order concepts into the mass media again on a worldwide level."

1972 -- President Nixon visits China. In his toast to Chinese Premier Chou En-lai, former CFR member and now President, Richard Nixon, expresses "the hope that each of us has to build a new world order."

May 18, 1972 -- In speaking of the coming of world government, Roy M. Ash, director of the Office of Management and Budget, declares that:

"within two decades the institutional framework for a world economic community will be in place. [and] aspects of individual sovereignty will be given over to a supernational authority."

1973 -- The Trilateral Commission is established. Banker David Rockefeller organizes this new private body and chooses Zbigniew Brzezinski, later National Security Advisor to President Carter, as the Commission's first director and invites Jimmy Carter to become a founding member.

1973 -- Humanist Manifesto II is published:

"The next century can be and should be the humanistic century. we stand at the dawn of a new age. a secular society on a planetary scale. As non-theists we begin with humans not God, nature not deity. we deplore the division of humankind on nationalistic grounds. Thus we look to the development of a system of world law and a world order based upon transnational federal government. The true revolution is occurring."

April, 1974 -- Former U. S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Trilateralist and CFR member Richard Gardner's article The Hard Road to World Order is published in the CFR's Foreign Affairs where he states that:

"the 'house of world order' will have to be built from the bottom up rather than from the top down. but an end run around national sovereignty, eroding it piece by piece, will accomplish much more than the old-fashioned frontal assault."

1974 -- The World Conference of Religion for Peace, held in Louvain, Belgium is held. Douglas Roche presents a report entitled We Can Achieve a New World Order.

The U.N. calls for wealth redistribution: In a report entitled New International Economic Order, the U.N. General Assembly outlines a plan to redistribute the wealth from the rich to the poor nations.

1975 -- A study titled, A New World Order, is published by the Center of International Studies, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Studies, Princeton University.

1975 -- In Congress, 32 Senators and 92 Representatives sign A Declaration of Interdependence, written by historian Henry Steele Commager. The Declaration states that:

"we must join with others to bring forth a new world order. Narrow notions of national sovereignty must not be permitted to curtail that obligation."

Congresswoman Marjorie Holt refuses to sign the Declaration saying:

"It calls for the surrender of our national sovereignty to international organizations. It declares that our economy should be regulated by international authorities. It proposes that we enter a 'new world order' that would redistribute the wealth created by the American people."

1975 -- Retired Navy Admiral Chester Ward, former Judge Advocate General of the U.S. Navy and former CFR member, writes in a critique that the goal of the CFR is the "submergence of U. S. sovereignty and national independence into an all powerful one-world government. "

1975 -- Kissinger on the Couch is published. Authors Phyllis Schlafly and former CFR member Chester Ward state:

"Once the ruling members of the CFR have decided that the U.S. government should espouse a particular policy, the very substantial research facilities of the CFR are put to work to develop arguments, intellectual and emotional, to support the new policy and to confound, discredit, intellectually and politically, any opposition. "

1976 -- RIO: Reshaping the International Order is published by the globalist Club of Rome, calling for a new international order, including an economic redistribution of wealth.

1977 -- The Third Try at World Order is published. Author Harlan Cleveland of the Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies calls for:

"changing Americans' attitudes and institutions" for "complete disarmament (except for international soldiers)" and "for individual entitlement to food, health and education."

1977 -- Imperial Brain Trust by Laurence Shoup and William Minter is published. The book takes a critical look at the Council on Foreign Relations with chapters such as: Shaping a New World Order: The Council's Blueprint for Global Hegemony, 1939-1944 and Toward the 1980's: The Council's Plans for a New World Order.

1977 -- The Trilateral Connection appears in the July edition of Atlantic Monthly. Written by Jeremiah Novak, it says:

"For the third time in this century, a group of American schools, businessmen, and government officials is planning to fashion a New World Order. "

1977 -- Leading educator Mortimer Adler publishes Philosopher at Large in which he says:

". if local civil government is necessary for local civil peace, then world civil government is necessary for world peace."

1979 -- Barry Goldwater, retiring Republican Senator from Arizona, publishes his autobiography With No Apologies. He writes:

"In my view The Trilateral Commission represents a skillful, coordinated effort to seize control and consolidate the four centers of power -- political, monetary, intellectual, and ecclesiastical. All this is to be done in the interest of creating a more peaceful, more productive world community. What the Trilateralists truly intend is the creation of a worldwide economic power superior to the political governments of the nation-states involved. They believe the abundant materialism they propose to create will overwhelm existing differences. As managers and creators of the system they will rule the future."

1984 -- The Power to Lead is published. Author James McGregor Burns admits:

"The framers of the U.S. constitution have simply been too shrewd for us. The have outwitted us. They designed separate institutions that cannot be unified by mechanical linkages, frail bridges, tinkering. If we are to 'turn the Founders upside down' -- we must directly confront the constitutional structure they erected."

1985 -- Norman Cousins, the honorary chairman of Planetary Citizens for the World We Chose, is quoted in Human Events:

"World government is coming, in fact, it is inevitable. No arguments for or against it can change that fact."

Cousins was also president of the World Federalist Association, an affiliate of the World Association for World Federation (WAWF), headquartered in Amsterdam. WAWF is a leading force for world federal government and is accredited by the U.N. as a Non-Governmental Organization.

1987 -- The Secret Constitution and the Need for Constitutional Change is sponsored in part by the Rockefeller Foundation. Some thoughts of author Arthur S. Miller are:

". a pervasive system of thought control exists in the United States. the citizenry is indoctrinated by employment of the mass media and the system of public education. people are told what to think about. the old order is crumbling. Nationalism should be seen as a dangerous social disease. A new vision is required to plan and manage the future, a global vision that will transcend national boundaries and eliminate the poison of nationalistic solutions. a new Constitution is necessary."

1988 -- Former Under-secretary of State and CFR member George Ball in a January 24 interview in the New York Times says:

"The Cold War should no longer be the kind of obsessive concern that it is. Neither side is going to attack the other deliberately. If we could internationalize by using the U.N. in conjunction with the Soviet Union, because we now no longer have to fear, in most cases, a Soviet veto, then we could begin to transform the shape of the world and might get the U.N. back to doing something useful. Sooner or later we are going to have to face restructuring our institutions so that they are not confined merely to the nation-states. Start first on a regional and ultimately you could move to a world basis."

December 7, 1988 -- In an address to the U.N., Mikhail Gorbachev calls for mutual consensus:

"World progress is only possible through a search for universal human consensus as we move forward to a new world order."

May 12, 1989 --President Bush invites the Soviets to join World Order. Speaking to the graduating class at Texas A&M University, Mr. Bush states that the United States is ready to welcome the Soviet Union "back into the world order."

1989 -- Carl Bernstein's (Woodward and Bernstein of Watergate fame) book Loyalties: A Son's Memoir is published. His father and mother had been members of the Communist party. Bernstein's father tells his son about the book:

"You're going to prove [Sen. Joseph] McCarthy was right, because all he was saying is that the system was loaded with Communists. And he was right. I'm worried about the kind of book you're going to write and about cleaning up McCarthy. The problem is that everybody said he was a liar you're saying he was right. I agree that the Party was a force in the country."

1990 -- The World Federalist Association faults the American press. Writing in their Summer/Fall newsletter, Deputy Director Eric Cox describes world events over the past year or two and declares:

"It's sad but true that the slow-witted American press has not grasped the significance of most of these developments. But most federalists know what is happening. And they are not frightened by the old bug-a-boo of sovereignty."

September 11, 1990 -- President Bush calls the Gulf War an opportunity for the New World Order. In an address to Congress entitled Toward a New World Order, Mr. Bush says:

"The crisis in the Persian Gulf offers a rare opportunity to move toward an historic period of cooperation. Out of these troubled times. a new world order can emerge in which the nations of the world, east and west, north and south, can prosper and live in harmony. Today the new world is struggling to be born."

September 25, 1990 -- In an address to the U.N., Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze describes Iraq's invasion of Kuwait as "an act of terrorism [that] has been perpetrated against the emerging New World Order." On December 31, Gorbachev declares that the New World Order would be ushered in by the Gulf Crisis.

October 1, 1990 -- In a U.N. address, President Bush speaks of the:

". collective strength of the world community expressed by the U.N. an historic movement towards a new world order. a new partnership of nations. a time when humankind came into its own. to bring about a revolution of the spirit and the mind and begin a journey into a. new age."

1991 -- Author Linda MacRae-Campbell publishes How to Start a Revolution at Your School in In Context. She promotes the use of "change agents" as "self-acknowledged revolutionaries" and "co-conspirators."

1991 -- President Bush praises the New World Order in a State of Union Message:

"What is at stake is more than one small country, it is a big idea -- a new world order. to achieve the universal aspirations of mankind. based on shared principles and the rule of law. The illumination of a thousand points of light. The winds of change are with us now."

February 6, 1991 -- President Bush tells the Economic Club of New York:

June, 1991 -- The Council on Foreign Relations co-sponsors an assembly Rethinking America's Security: Beyond Cold War to New World Order which is attended by 65 prestigious members of government, labor, academia, the media, military, and the professions from nine countries. Later, several of the conference participants joined some 100 other world leaders for another closed door meeting of the Bilderberg Society in Baden Baden, Germany. The Bilderbergers also exert considerable clout in determining the foreign policies of their respective governments.

July, 1991 -- The Southeastern World Affairs Institute discusses the New World Order. In a program, topics include, Legal Structures for a New World Order and The United Nations: From its Conception to a New World Order. Participants include a former director of the U.N.'s General Legal Division, and a former Secretary General of International Planned Parenthood.

Late July, 1991 -- On a Cable News Network program, CFR member and former CIA director Stansfield Turner (Rhodes scholar), when asked about Iraq, responded:

"We have a much bigger objective. We've got to look at the long run here. This is an example -- the situation between the United Nations and Iraq -- where the United Nations is deliberately intruding into the sovereignty of a sovereign nation. Now this is a marvelous precedent (to be used in) all countries of the world. "

October 29, 1991 -- David Funderburk, former U. S. Ambassador to Romania, tells a North Carolina audience:

"George Bush has been surrounding himself with people who believe in one-world government. They believe that the Soviet system and the American system are converging."

The vehicle to bring this about, said Funderburk, is the United Nations, "the majority of whose 166 member states are socialist, atheist, and anti-American." Funderburk served as ambassador in Bucharest from 1981 to 1985, when he resigned in frustration over U.S. support of the oppressive regime of the late Rumanian dictator, Nicolae Ceausescu.

October 30, 1991: -- President Gorbachev at the Middle East Peace Talks in Madrid states:

"We are beginning to see practical support. And this is a very significant sign of the movement towards a new era, a new age. We see both in our country and elsewhere. ghosts of the old thinking. When we rid ourselves of their presence, we will be better able to move toward a new world order. relying on the relevant mechanisms of the United Nations."

Elsewhere, in Alexandria, Virginia, Elena Lenskaya, Counsellor to the Minister of Education of Russia, delivers the keynote address for a program titled, Education for a New World Order.

1992 -- The Twilight of Sovereignty by CFR member (and former Citicorp Chairman) Walter Wriston is published, in which he claims:

"A truly global economy will require . compromises of national sovereignty. There is no escaping the system."

1992 -- The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) Earth Summit takes place in Rio de Janeiro this year, headed by Conference Secretary-General Maurice Strong. The main products of this summit are the Biodiversity Treaty and Agenda 21, which the U.S. hesitates to sign because of opposition at home due to the threat to sovereignty and economics. The summit says the first world's wealth must be transferred to the third world.

July 20, 1992 -- TIME magazine publishes The Birth of the Global Nation by Strobe Talbott, Rhodes Scholar, roommate of Bill Clinton at Oxford University, CFR Director, and Trilateralist, in which he writes:

"All countries are basically social arrangements. No matter how permanent or even sacred they may seem at any one time, in fact they are all artificial and temporary. Perhaps national sovereignty wasn't such a great idea after all. But it has taken the events in our own wondrous and terrible century to clinch the case for world government."

As an editor of Time, Talbott defended Clinton during his presidential campaign. He was appointed by President Clinton as the number two person at the State Department behind Secretary of State Warren Christopher, former Trilateralist and former CFR Vice-Chairman and Director. Talbott was confirmed by about two-thirds of the U.S. Senate despite his statement about the unimportance of national sovereignty.

September 29, 1992 -- At a town hall meeting in Los Angeles, Trilateralist and former CFR president Winston Lord delivers a speech titled Changing Our Ways: America and the New World, in which he remarks:

"To a certain extent, we are going to have to yield some of our sovereignty, which will be controversial at home. [Under] the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). some Americans are going to be hurt as low-wage jobs are taken away."

Lord became an Assistant Secretary of State in the Clinton administration.

Winter, 1992-93 -- The CFR's Foreign Affairs publishes Empowering the United Nations by U.N. Secretary General Boutros-Boutros Ghali, who asserts:

"It is undeniable that the centuries-old doctrine of absolute and exclusive sovereignty no longer stands. Underlying the rights of the individual and the rights of peoples is a dimension of universal sovereignty that resides in all humanity. It is a sense that increasingly finds expression in the gradual expansion of international law. In this setting the significance of the United Nations should be evident and accepted."

1993 -- Strobe Talbott receives the Norman Cousins Global Governance Award for his 1992 TIME article, The Birth of the Global Nation and in appreciation for what he has done "for the cause of global governance." President Clinton writes a letter of congratulation which states:

"Norman Cousins worked for world peace and world government. Strobe Talbott's lifetime achievements as a voice for global harmony have earned him this recognition. He will be a worthy recipient of the Norman Cousins Global Governance Award. Best wishes. for future success."

Not only does President Clinton use the specific term, "world government," but he also expressly wishes the WFA "future success" in pursuing world federal government. Talbott proudly accepts the award, but says the WFA should have given it to the other nominee, Mikhail Gorbachev.

July 18, 1993 -- CFR member and Trilateralist Henry Kissinger writes in the Los Angeles Times concerning NAFTA:

"What Congress will have before it is not a conventional trade agreement but the architecture of a new international system. a first step toward a new world order."

August 23, 1993 -- Christopher Hitchens, Socialist friend of Bill Clinton when he was at Oxford University, says in a C-Span interview:

". it is, of course the case that there is a ruling class in this country, and that it has allies internationally."

October 30, 1993 -- Washington Post ombudsman Richard Harwood does an op-ed piece about the role of the CFR's media members:

"Their membership is an acknowledgment of their ascension into the American ruling class [where] they do not merely analyze and interpret foreign policy for the United States they help make it."

January/February, 1994 -- The CFR's Foreign Affairs prints an opening article by CFR Senior Fellow Michael Clough in which he writes that the "Wise Men" (e.g. Paul Nitze, Dean Acheson, George Kennan, and John J. McCloy) have:

"assiduously guarded it [American foreign policy] for the past 50 years. They ascended to power during World War II. This was as it should be. National security and the national interest, they argued must transcend the special interests and passions of the people who make up America. How was this small band of Atlantic-minded internationalists able to triumph. Eastern internationalists were able to shape and staff the burgeoning foreign policy institutions. As long as the Cold War endured and nuclear Armageddon seemed only a missile away, the public was willing to tolerate such an undemocratic foreign policy making system."

1995 -- The State of the World Forum took place in the fall of this year, sponsored by the Gorbachev Foundation located at the Presidio in San Francisco. Foundation President Jim Garrison chairs the meeting of who's-whos from around the world including Margaret Thatcher, Maurice Strong, George Bush, Mikhail Gorbachev and others. Conversation centers around the oneness of mankind and the coming global government. However, the term "global governance" is now used in place of "new world order" since the latter has become a political liability, being a lightning rod for opponents of global government.

1996 -- The United Nations 420-page report Our Global Neighborhood is published. It outlines a plan for "global governance," calling for an international Conference on Global Governance in 1998 for the purpose of submitting to the world the necessary treaties and agreements for ratification by the year 2000.

1996 -- State of the World Forum II will take place again this fall in San Francisco. This time, many of the sessions are closed to the press.

There are hundreds more articles and speeches by those actively working to make global government a reality. We could not fit them all in here.

This article was originally published in the
March 1997 Personal Update News Journal.

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